THE OPTIMISM BIAS AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT RISK PERCEPTION

Research suggests that people are excessively and unrealistically optimistic when judging their driving competency and accident risk. In this study, college-age drivers compared their risk of being involved in a variety of described traffic accidents relative to their peers. They also rated each of the accidents along a number of dimensions hypothesized as being related to optimism. In addition, subjects provided global estimates of their driving safety, skill, and accident likelihood. Significant optimism was evident for both the accidents and the global ratings. Optimism increased with driving experience and marginally with age. Those with more driving experience considered human factors to be more important in accident causation; those assigning more importance to human factors also rated themselves as more skillful drivers. For the specific accidents, perceived controllability was a strong predictor of optimism. The findings for controllability are interpreted in terms of other recent data and hypothesized explanations of the optimism bias. In general, it appears that optimism arises because people persistently overestimate the degree of control that they have over events.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Headington Hill Hall
  Oxford OX30BW,    
• Authors:
  • DeJoy, D M
• Publication Date: 1989-8

Media Info

• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 333-340
• Serial:
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention
  • Volume: 21
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0001-4575
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Age; Attitudes; Bias (Statistics); Control; Crash risk forecasting; Drivers; Hazards; Human factors; Perception; Risk assessment; Traffic crashes
• Old TRIS Terms: Driver perception
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00488036
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-040 737
• Files: HSL, TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Sep 30 1991 12:00AM