ANALYSIS OF SHIP COLLISION PROBABILITIES

Hazardous materials being transported by sea or inland waterway have been released to the environment following serious ship collisions, rammings, or groundings. The quantitative determination of these risks in therefore of substantial importance to ship transportation. Previous studies of ship collision probabilities have been semiempirical in nature, involving various assumptions for navigational behavior or functional dependencies. The present paper derives the necessary physical relationships implied by stochastic behavior through a kinematic analysis of ship movements and the introduction of a ship collision probability flux. The model yields analytical expressions for the probabilities of ship collisions, as well as rammings and groundings as special cases. Explicit expressions for the probabilities of being the struck versus the striking ship are given. Suggestions for various applications of the stochastic flux model are presented. A simplified example of a nonempirical application of the model yields predictions that are already comparable to empirical observations.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on Transport of Hazardous Cargoes by Sea and Inland Waterways held at Jacksonville, Fla., Oct. 1975, consists of about 45 papers (approx. 570 pgs.) and will be available about mid-February 1976 from NTIS.
  • Corporate Authors:

    United States Coast Guard

    2100 Second Street, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20593
  • Authors:
    • Chen, E
  • Publication Date: 1975-10

Media Info

  • Pagination: 12 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00127100
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: United States Coast Guard
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Proceeding
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Nov 5 1975 12:00AM