THE PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF CONSTRUCTION PERFORMANCE IN HARD ROCK TUNNELS
This report concerns the development of a computer-based simulation model which can be used to evaluate costs and risks associated with hard rock tunneling. This report is the 4th in a series of reports dealing with this subject. The report examines conventional cost estimating procedures and concludes that there are two major inadequacies which exist: (1) the inability to account for the uncertainty in suspected geologic conditions at the tunnel depth; and (2) the inability to quantify the effect of uncertain geology and the effect of the additional uncertainty in productivity of men and equipment on the performance of a construction strategy. The model employs techniques of probability and simulation to avoid these two shortcomings.
- Also pub. as Tunnel Construction-4.
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA United States 02139
National Science Foundation1800 G Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20550
- Minott, C H
- Publication Date: 1974-7
- Pagination: 198 p.
- TRT Terms: Analysis; Construction; Construction equipment; Construction management; Cost estimating; Costs; Engineering geology; Estimates; Estimating; Excavation and tunneling; Probability theory; Rocks; Simulation; Subways; Tunneling; Underground structures
- Uncontrolled Terms: Cost analysis
- Old TRIS Terms: Rock tunneling; Subway construction; Underground supporting
- Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Construction; Data and Information Technology; Finance; Geotechnology; Highways; Public Transportation; Vehicles and Equipment;
- Accession Number: 00091758
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: R74-47 Tech. Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: NSF-GI-34029
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Sep 10 1981 12:00AM