THE PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF CONSTRUCTION PERFORMANCE IN HARD ROCK TUNNELS

This report concerns the development of a computer-based simulation model which can be used to evaluate costs and risks associated with hard rock tunneling. This report is the 4th in a series of reports dealing with this subject. The report examines conventional cost estimating procedures and concludes that there are two major inadequacies which exist: (1) the inability to account for the uncertainty in suspected geologic conditions at the tunnel depth; and (2) the inability to quantify the effect of uncertain geology and the effect of the additional uncertainty in productivity of men and equipment on the performance of a construction strategy. The model employs techniques of probability and simulation to avoid these two shortcomings.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Also pub. as Tunnel Construction-4.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Department of Civil Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Avenue
    Cambridge, MA  USA  02139

    National Science Foundation

    1800 G Street, NW
    Washington, DC  USA  20550
  • Authors:
    • Minott, C H
  • Publication Date: 1974-7

Media Info

  • Pagination: 198 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00091758
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: R74-47 Tech. Rpt.
  • Contract Numbers: NSF-GI-34029
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Sep 10 1981 12:00AM