ESTIMATES OF INCREASE IN SKIN CANCER INCIDENCE WITH TIME FOLLOWING A DECREASE IN STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
Estimates of skin cancer incidence resulting from a sudden reduction of stratospheric ozone have been made recently that are based on uncertain epidemiological data. This report shows that these estimates should be interpreted as saturation values that would not be realized until many decades have elapsed subsequent to the assumed UV perturbation resulting from the ozone reduction. Similarly, many decades would be required before skin cancer incidence rate is restored to the unperturbed rate following removal of the perturbing agent. Calculations for the growth of skin cancer incidence with time are made in which skin cancer incidence is assumed to be a linear function of either accumulated lifetime or adult dose, and several step-function models for the UV perturbation are investigated. The computations are specifically made for Dallas, Texas, but the results should also be applicable to other cities and the United States as a whole.
Institute for Defense Analyses400 Army Navy Drive
Arlington, VA United States 22202
Department of TransportationClimatic Impact Assessment Program, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590
- Cutchis, P
- Publication Date: 1975-2
- Pagination: 33 p.
- TRT Terms: Atmospheric layers; Cancer; Crash exposure; Diseases and medical conditions; Epidemiology; Forecasting; Human beings; Linear regression analysis; Ozone; Radiation doses; Radiation hazards; Skin; Ultraviolet radiation
- Uncontrolled Terms: Exposure
- Old TRIS Terms: Ozonosphere; Radiation effects
- Subject Areas: Safety and Human Factors;
- Accession Number: 00091505
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: P-1089 Final Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-30057
- Files: NTIS, USDOT
- Created Date: Jul 24 1975 12:00AM