ESTIMATES OF INCREASE IN SKIN CANCER INCIDENCE WITH TIME FOLLOWING A DECREASE IN STRATOSPHERIC OZONE

Estimates of skin cancer incidence resulting from a sudden reduction of stratospheric ozone have been made recently that are based on uncertain epidemiological data. This report shows that these estimates should be interpreted as saturation values that would not be realized until many decades have elapsed subsequent to the assumed UV perturbation resulting from the ozone reduction. Similarly, many decades would be required before skin cancer incidence rate is restored to the unperturbed rate following removal of the perturbing agent. Calculations for the growth of skin cancer incidence with time are made in which skin cancer incidence is assumed to be a linear function of either accumulated lifetime or adult dose, and several step-function models for the UV perturbation are investigated. The computations are specifically made for Dallas, Texas, but the results should also be applicable to other cities and the United States as a whole.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Institute for Defense Analyses

    400 Army Navy Drive
    Arlington, VA  United States  22202

    Department of Transportation

    Climatic Impact Assessment Program, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Authors:
    • Cutchis, P
  • Publication Date: 1975-2

Media Info

  • Pagination: 33 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00091505
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: P-1089 Final Rpt.
  • Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-30057
  • Files: NTIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Jul 24 1975 12:00AM