ON THE RESPONSE OF HEMISPHERIC MEAN TEMPERATURE TO STRATOSPHERIC DUST: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH
The cooling effects of stratospheric dust, and corresponding response times for hemispheric mean temperature changes, are estimated using an empirical approach and a simple time-dependent formulation. The approach couples estimates of stratospheric dust injections by volcanic eruptions to an available record of mean temperature anomalies. The time period examined is 1883-1968. The effort is exploratory; nevertheless, the results strongly suggest that large volcanic eruptions do lead to short-term climatic cooling effects that, with frequent eruptions, would tend to be cumulative. The many uncertainties are noted, as are difficulties introduced by apparent underlying temperature trends. The cooling coefficients and response time found are compared to values developed elsewhere. The apparent climatic significance of stratospheric dust, and the fact that climatic changes involve integrals over time, suggest that long-term records of stratospheric dust, as well as other climate-determining parameters, should be developed and maintained.
Institute for Defense Analyses400 Army Navy Drive
Arlington, VA United States 22202
Department of Transportation1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590
Climatic Impact Assessment Program.,
- Oliver, R C
- Publication Date: 1975-4
- Pagination: 47 p.
- TRT Terms: Atmospheric temperature; Climate change; Cooling; Correlation analysis; Dust; Numerical analysis; Stratosphere; Trend (Statistics); Volcanoes; Weather and climate
- Old TRIS Terms: Abnormalities
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Environment;
- Accession Number: 00091503
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: P-1094 Final Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-30057
- Files: NTIS, USDOT
- Created Date: Jul 24 1975 12:00AM