EXPECTED TRAFFIC CONFLICT RATES AND THEIR USE IN PREDICTING ACCIDENTS

The purpose of this research was to establish relationships between traffic conflicts and accidents and to identify expected and abnormal conflict rates given various circumstances. The data on which the conclusions and recommendations are based were collected during the summer of 1982 at 46 signalized and unsignalized intersections in the greater Kansas City area. The conclusions are limited to daytime (7:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.) and weekday (Monday-Thursday) traffic and to dry pavement conditions. Accident/conflict ratios have been statistically determined for several types of collisions for each of the four types of intersections (signalized high volume, signalized medium volume, unsignalized meduim volume, and unsignalized low volume). These ratios can be applied to comparable intersections to obtain an expected accident rate of a specific type after the appropriate conflict data are collected. Also, statistical procedures were developed to determine conflict rate values that could be considered abnormally high. Overall, traffic conflicts of certain types are good surrogates for accidents in that they produce estimates of average accident rates nearly as accurate, and just as precise, as those produced from historical accident data. Therefore, if there are insufficient accident data to produce an estimate, a conflicts study should be helpful.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1985/1026/1026-001.pdf
• Summary URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=EXPECTED+TRAFFIC+CONFLICT+RATES+AND+THEIR+USE+IN+PREDICTING+ACCIDENTS&author=W.+Glauz&author=K.+Bauer&author=D.+Migletz&publication_year=1985
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Methodology for Evaluating Highway Improvements.
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  Transportation Research Board

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• Authors:
  • Glauz, W D
  • Bauer, K M
  • Migletz, D J
• Publication Date: 1985

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1-12
• Monograph Title: Evaluation Methods and Design and Operational Effects of Geometrics
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1026
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Correlation analysis; Crash rates; Forecasting; Intersections; Traffic conflicts; Traffic volume
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00457193
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309039169
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-039 592
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Aug 31 1990 12:00AM