DYNAMIC ESTIMATION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEMAND ELASTICITIES: SOME NEW EVIDENCE

Time series data on public transport demand were available for the West Midlands PTE (Public Transport Executive) operating area, covering a six year period (1977-1983). Elasticities were estimated for the adult market, segmented according to whether "on bus" tickets or travelcards were used. These elasticities were estimated using conventional static econometric models and various lagged regression models, to allow consideration of both short and long term elasticities. In doing so account was taken of: 1) the cross-elasticity between adult single and adult travelcard demand; 2) fares and service level effects; 3) "trend" variables including car ownership and unemployment; and 4) seasonal variation. Lagged models are entirely orthodox in econometrics, but have not been frequently use in transport studies. The method seems to have considerable advantage, especially in allowing for at least one class of dynamic effect. An understanding of both short and long term effects is desirable since a policy which appears effective in the short term may have adverse effects in the long term and vice versa. (a) for the covering abstract of the seminar see TRIS 456300.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Public Transport Planning and Operation. Proceedings of Seminar J held at PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, University of Sussex, England, 15-18 July 1985, V P266.
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  110 Strand
  London WC2,   England 
• Authors:
  • McKenzie, R P
  • Goodwin, P B
• Conference:
  • Planning & Transport Res & Comp, Sum Ann Mtg, Proc
• Publication Date: 1985

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 107-122

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Analysis; Automobile ownership; Bus transit; Conferences; Demand; Economics; Elasticity (Economics); Fares; Forecasting; Jobs; Level of service; Marketing; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Policy; Public transit; Regression analysis; Seasons; Tariffs; Tickets; Travel demand; Trend (Statistics); Unemployment
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Old TRIS Terms: Analytical method; Bus services; Passes
• ITRD Terms: 1272: Bus; 8525: Conference; 285: Demand (econ); 5473: Dynamics; 255: Economics; 9020: Evaluation (assessment); 132: Forecast; 653: Level of service; 9110: Long term; 6473: Mathematical model; 2271: Occupation; 143: Planning; 173: Policy; 744: Public transport; 6588: Regression analysis; 2525: Season; 250: Season ticket; 241: Tariff; 676: Traffic survey; 6515: Trend (stat); 8119: United Kingdom; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00456315
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Report/Paper Numbers: Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 31 1986 12:00AM