The principal method used in transportation studies to forecast matrices of person trips between origins and destinations is usually an aggregate gravity model. This paper presents the theory and methods for the application of disaggregate estimation of probabilistic choice models to trip distribution. The most important practical differences between the aggregate and the disaggregate models are in the model estimation stage. Disaggregate models can be estimated with smaller traveller surveys and place an emphasis on the specification of utility functions with a larger set of explanatory variables. The paper deals with the issue of aggregation of actual destinations into traffic zones, also addressed by aggregate trip distribution models. However, it presents an aggregation of alternatives theory that was developed for disaggregate logit models based on the concept of random utility. Destination choice models are presented that were estimated in two recent studies in Paris, France, and in Maceio, Brazil, using the methods described.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    1-chome, Yotsuya, Shinjuku-ku
    Tokyo,   Japan  160-0004
  • Authors:
    • Ben-Akiba, M
    • GUNN, H F
    • Silman, L
  • Publication Date: 1984-7

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00453784
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Engineering Index
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 31 1986 12:00AM