FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE DEMAND USING DISAGGREGATE CHOICE MODELS

This paper presents a simulation model of the American automobile market. The simulation model combines a disaggregate model of household automobile number and type choice with an econometric model of used vehicle scrappage and simple models of new car supply. For fixed vehicle designs, consumer and producer interactions determine new car sales, used car scrappage and consumer vehicle holdings. The model allows automobiles to be highly differentiated and consumers to be heterogeneous. Short-run equilibrium is defined as supply equal to demand for every vehicle type during each market period. The automobile stock then evolves slowly as new vehicles are added and old vehicles are removed during each period. An empirical application of the simulation model with 12 consumer groups and 131 vehicle types is used to forecast automobile holdings. A base case scenario is run for 1978-1984 and compared with the observed market behaviour during this period. Several other simulations are then run comparing different gasoline price scenarios with the base case for 1984-1990. (Author/TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01912615
• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Headington Hill Hall
  Oxford OX30BW,    
• Authors:
  • Berkovec, J
• Publication Date: 1985-8

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 315-329
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
  • Volume: 19B
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0191-2615
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01912615

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobiles; Automobiles by type; Costs; Demand; Disaggregate analysis; Econometric models; Forecasting; Fuels; Households; Market research; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Simulation; Supply
• Uncontrolled Terms: Fuel costs; Selection; Supply and demand; Vehicle type
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models
• ITRD Terms: 1243: Car; 224: Cost; 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 3850: Fuel; 309: Household; 6473: Mathematical model; 9072: Selection; 9103: Simulation; 8122: USA; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Energy; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00453263
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-039 377
• Files: HSL, ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Feb 28 1986 12:00AM