An 18-month study of a prototype application of a scenario planning methodology for public planning is documented. The scenario technique is intended to address concerns about long-range planning in the light of uncertainties about the future by considering the interaction of a few key variables. By assigning values to each of the variables and considering their interaction, a panel of policy makers generates several hypothetical scenarios of the future that provide a context for considering directions for future public policy. The key variables were oil supply, economic activity, and technological change. The scenario process is described and a summary is given of the substantive findings. Also the value of scenario analysis as an adjunct to the ongoing, conventional transportation planning process is assessed.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 29-33
  • Monograph Title: Methodologies for considering technical energy issues in urban transportation planning
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00450307
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309037727
  • Report/Paper Numbers: HS-038 878
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Nov 30 1985 12:00AM