A basic concept for estimating the probability of collision for a ship navigating through a seaway with congested marine traffic can be derived by applying queuing theory to the relation between collision evoidance manoeuvres and the traffic environment. Ships usually perform various 'services', such as altering course of collision avoidance, to other ships and geographical obstacles; the analogy of the collision avoidance system to queuing is that each arrival of another ship represents a 'customer' and each manoeuvre of own ship corresponds to a 'service'. A model for a collision-avoidance system was constructed analytically from queuing theory and expressed numerically, under assumptions based on traffic surveys and the statistical analysis of collision avoidance procedures at sea, in order to study the feasibilities of the model. The calculated probabilities of collision for ships in Japanese straits were compared with the collision statistics over the last five years and agreement was good except for low values of collision probability. They were also found to correspond well with the psychological evaluations of more than one thousand navigators as to the mental strain due to the traffic environment in each strait. Based on the model, factors which influence the risk of collision were quantitatively investigated.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Royal Institute of Navigation

    1 Kensington Gore
    London,   England 

    Royal Institute of Navigation

    Royal Geographical Society, 1 Kensington Gore
    London SW7,   England 
  • Authors:
    • Hara, K
  • Publication Date: 1974-10

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  • Accession Number: 00084679
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Royal Institute of Navigation
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 1 1975 12:00AM