A mathematical model of maritime collision hazards under a variety of visibility and traffic conditions is presented. It is shown that an RMS cross-track navigation accuracy of 0.25 times the separation between the center lines of adjacent oppositely directed one-way lanes is optimum in the sense of minimizing the expected frequency of collisions. This optimization criterion is shown to be relatively insensitive to the simplifications underlying the collision model and thus appears to be of universal applicability. Remarkable agreement is found between predictions of the model and observed collision statistics for the English Channel. The study clearly demonstrates that a redesign of shipping lanes to provide for speed segregation of codirected shipping would be required to take advantage of navaid capabilities exceeding the optimum accuracy requirement. In the absence of such lane redesign, and significant tightening of navigation accuracy requirements beyond the indicated optimum is counterproductive from an overall safety standpoint.

Media Info

  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: p. 227-233

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00084563
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Engineering Index
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Proc Paper
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 19 1975 12:00AM