THE FUTURE OF THE MOTORCAR: ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

THE ARTICLE DISCUSSES FORECASTS OF WORLD VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BEYOND THE YEAR 2000 FOLLOWING SHARP RISES IN SOCIAL AND ENERGY COSTS EXPECTED IN THE FUTURE. A COST ANALYSIS OF CAR OWNERSHIP IN THE NETHERLANDS IS PRESENTED, WHICH CONSIDERS THE FOLLOWING ASPECTS:- VALUES AND THE PRIVATE MOTORCAR; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; AIR POLLUTION; NOISE NUISANCE; SAFETY ON THE ROAD; AUTOMATED MOTORWAYS; AND, CONSUMPTION OF RAW MATERIALS AND FUELS. TOTAL COST VALUES ARE GIVEN FOR THE YEAR 2000 WHICH GIVE TWO COST LEVELS OF CAR OWNERSHIP, ONE AT A HIGH RATE AND BASED ON UNCHANGED TRENDS IN CAR USAGE AND COSTS, WHILE THE OTHER IS AT A LOWER RATE BASED ON A DECREASE IN USAGE AND INCREASED COSTS. IT IS THE AUTHOR'S OPINION THAT SOCIETY SHOULD CHOOSE THE LOWER LEVEL IN ORDER TO RESTRAIN URBAN SPRAWL, EXPAND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AND DEVELOP COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS DESIGNED TO CONSERVE ENERGY.

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Athens Center for Ekistics

    P.O. Box 471
    Athens 13L,   Greece 
  • Authors:
    • Hupkes, G R
  • Publication Date: 1974-6

Media Info

  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 739-44
  • Serial:
    • Ekistics
    • Volume: 37
    • Issue Number: 223
    • Publisher: Athens Technological Organization
    • ISSN: 0013-2942

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00083273
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 8 1982 12:00AM