This paper addresses the applicability of disaggregate travel demand models to the problems of special context planning. The paper investigates the nature of demand forecasting in special contexts and the degree to which disaggregate techniques meet prespecified modeling requirements. It is not based on a careful search of the literature for examples of the use of disaggregate travel demand models in special context planning. The findings are that disaggregate procedures have certain advantages over conventional techniques for special context planning but fall short of being true advances in demand modeling. This is because they are in reality not materially different in structure from conventional aggregate procedures, contain the same basic limitations as these methods, and do not extract the behavioral process underlying travel choices in special context planning any better than do conventional methods. The paper concludes that disaggregate modeling techniques appear to have their greatest value in structuring the analyst's approach to demand estimation and facilitating the calibration of demand models with small data bases. For these reasons they should continue to be explored as useful tools, but not to the exclusion of other research into the behavioral phenomena underlying special context planning.

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    • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Presented at a conference in South Berwick, Maine, July 8-13, 1973, sponsored by TRB, DOT and the Engineering Foundation.
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  • Authors:
    • Hartgen, David T
    • Wachs, Martin
  • Publication Date: 1974

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  • Accession Number: 00081604
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Apr 8 1975 12:00AM