CHALLENGES IN URBAN TRAVEL FORECASTING

This paper discusses the need for travel forecasting models which take into account the current needs in urban planning. These models should reflect the socioeconomic changes that have occurred in recent years. They should be concerned with distribution systems, peripheral parking concepts, traffic-free zones, bicycle and taxi modes, movement of goods, noise and air pollution, mobility for the disadvantaged, and many other recent developments. Current models have many disadvantages, which make them unsuitable for use in urban planning. Not only are they costly and time-consuming, but they do not easily respond to the increasing number of legislative requirements for such matters as air quality and energy conservation. It is concluded that the past efforts in travel demand forecasting were largely successful for the purposes for which they were intended, but the current transportation-related issues are far more complex and require a concerted effort on the part of the profession to meet the challenge. Another topic addressed in this paper is the value of travel time. It is concluded that it should be used as a policy variable in public investment analysis, rather than as a basis for evaluating alternative courses of action.

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    • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Presented at a conference in South Berwick, Maine, July 8-13, 1973, sponsored by TRB, DOT and the Engineering Foundation.
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    Transportation Research Board

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  • Authors:
    • Gendell, David S
  • Publication Date: 1974

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  • Accession Number: 00081592
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Apr 8 1981 12:00AM