The background, description, and results are presented of systems level modeling efforts, and details are given of the hierarchical systems model, SPECULATOR, (Simulation Program Examining the Casualities Underlying Land, Agriculture, Transportation and Energy Relationships) which has the capability of assisting policy-makers to evaluate alternate policy options. The highly aggregated, computer model which simulates certain interactions between national level fuel import-agricultural export policy and the density transportation characteristics of urbanized areas in the U.S., is a non-linear dynamic discrete time model in which actual data is utilized in two different ways to enhance the credibility of the assumptions made. First, the plausibility of each individual hypothesis is examined using whatever data is available; second, time series data is used to tune the parameters of the complete model so that it is consistent with historical records. Details are given of the background and methodology as well as of the model.

  • Corporate Authors:

    University of California, Davis

    Interdisciplinary Systems Group
    Davis, CA  United States  95616
  • Authors:
    • Watt, K
    • Brewer, J
  • Publication Date: 1974-12

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: 118 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00083980
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Prog. Rpt.
  • Contract Numbers: NSF G1-27
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 8 1975 12:00AM