LAND USE, ENERGY FLOW, AND DECISION MAKING IN HUMAN SOCIETY
The background, description, and results are presented of systems level modeling efforts, and details are given of the hierarchical systems model, SPECULATOR, (Simulation Program Examining the Casualities Underlying Land, Agriculture, Transportation and Energy Relationships) which has the capability of assisting policy-makers to evaluate alternate policy options. The highly aggregated, computer model which simulates certain interactions between national level fuel import-agricultural export policy and the density transportation characteristics of urbanized areas in the U.S., is a non-linear dynamic discrete time model in which actual data is utilized in two different ways to enhance the credibility of the assumptions made. First, the plausibility of each individual hypothesis is examined using whatever data is available; second, time series data is used to tune the parameters of the complete model so that it is consistent with historical records. Details are given of the background and methodology as well as of the model.
University of California, DavisInterdisciplinary Systems Group
Davis, CA USA 95616
- Watt, K
- Brewer, J
- Publication Date: 1974-12
- Features: Figures; Tables;
- Pagination: 118 p.
- TRT Terms: Data processing; Decision making; Energy transfer; History; International trade; Land use; Mathematical models; Methodology; Public policy; Systems engineering; Transportation operations; Urban areas
- Old TRIS Terms: Transportation administration
- Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Highways; History; Policy; Society;
- Accession Number: 00083980
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: Prog. Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: NSF G1-27
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Apr 8 1975 12:00AM