STOCHASTIC STUDY OF DESIGN PARAMETERS AND LACK-OF-FIT OF PERFORMANCE MODEL IN THE TEXAS FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT DESIGN SYSTEM

The need for developing a method to account for variations and uncertainties of factors in pavement design was recognized by the FHWA-HRB Advisory Committee of the "Workshop in the Structural Design of Asphalt-Concrete Pavement Systems" in 1970 as one of the most pressing problems facing pavement engineers. A first step in the solution of the problem was taken when stochastic design concepts were applied to the Texas Flexible Pavement Design System (EPS). The probabilistic approach makes it possible to design for a desired level of reliability through consideration of the variabilities and uncertainites associated with pavement input variables. In order to utilize this added feature of EPS, estimates of the variations associated with the various input parameters, and the lack-of-fit error of the empirical models used in the system have to be determined. A study of the initial serviceability index of flexible pavements was performed to obtain better estimates of expected average values and variations associated with this input parameter. Twenty-one pavement projects were evaluated in the study, including ten hot-mix asphalt-concrete pavement and 11 with surface treatment. The study showed a significant difference in initial serviceability of the two types. A method for determining the variation in the performance equation caused by lack-of-fit is outlined herein, and recommendations for the types of data necessary for a quantitative evaluation are presented.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Research Study sponsored by the Texas Highway Department and FHWA.
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of Texas, Austin

    Center for Highway Research, 200 West 21st Street
    Austin, TX  USA  78712

    Texas Transportation Institute

    Texas A&M University System, 1600 E Lamar Boulevard
    Arlington, TX  USA  76011

    Texas State Department of Highways & Public Transp

    P.O. Box 5051
    Austin, TX  USA  78763
  • Authors:
    • Holsen, M
    • Hudson, W R
  • Publication Date: 1974-4

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 70 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00082895
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: No. 123-23 Res. Rpt.
  • Contract Numbers: 1-8-69-123
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI, STATEDOT
  • Created Date: Mar 26 1975 12:00AM