A new sampling procedure has been used in the revision to the five year old national road traffic forecasts, published by the D TP in December 1984. These show greater increase in the low growth forecast for cars than in previous estimates. This growth is now forecast at 78.6 per cent compared with 46.1 previously estimated in 1976. The predicted rate is not increased by the same amount in the high growth case. The growth rate for heavy goods vehicles remains nearly as predicted, with a small decline forecast, particularly in the lighter vehicles of two or three axles. Motorway bus services and deregulation has led to an unexpected increase in the numbers of public service vehicles over the past five years. The more optimistic view of the growth rate increases the value of time savings in road schemes over the next 10 years by between 2 and 7 per cent compared with the previous forecast. As fuel prices are not now expected to rise over the period, time savings would dominate the COBA analysis of a road scheme. (TRRL)

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 18
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00396653
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Sep 30 1985 12:00AM