AN ICE JAM PREDICTION MODEL AS A TOOL IN FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT

Currently, ice jam flooding does not enter into consideration of fleedplain designation or flood hazard management in areas experiencing irregular occurrences of ice jams, except as a reaction to past events. It is important, therefore, to test prediction techniques for their application to this problem. One such model is the Wiener Filtering Technique which is used to correlate the occurrence of ice jams with climatological data for Conklin, New York. It is postulated that ice jam events are directly related to seasonal temperature, snowfall, and temperature fluctuations. Monthly and fifteen day averages of these variables are correlated using the Wiener Filtering model. The preliminary results of these analyses show that, in Conkling, New York, different combinations of climatological data with past ice jam occurrence appear to show promise at predicting ice jam events. Further study is needed to test the significance and reliability of this prediction model.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00963941
• Corporate Authors:

  American Geophysical Union

  2000 Florida Avenue, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20009-1277
• Authors:
  • Barnes-Svarney, P L
  • Montz, B E
• Publication Date: 1985-1

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 7
• Serial:
  • EOS Transactions
  • Volume: 66
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: American Geophysical Union
  • ISSN: 0096-3941

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Climate; Correlation analysis; Floods; Ice; Mathematical models; Seasons; Snow; Temperature; Traffic congestion; Weather forecasting
• Uncontrolled Terms: Seasonal variations
• Old TRIS Terms: Jams
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Hydraulics and Hydrology; I26: Water Run-off - Freeze-thaw;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00393760
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 31 1985 12:00AM