REVENUE FORECASTING METHODS IN WASHINGTON STATE

A portion of the work performed in developing and using an econometric forecasting model of Washington State fuel tax revenue is reported. The administrative and legal frameworks within which the model was developed are outlined, and the administrative inputs to the final forecast are detailed. A three-equation model of fuel demand is developed. The first equation forecasts gasoline gallonage; the second equation forecasts diesel gallonage; and the third equation is an identity that defines total fuel gallonage. Each forecast is by quarter on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. The quarterly forecasts are averaged to yield annual forecasts for 8 years. The annual forecast is then spread to months with seasonal adjustments for the current fiscal year. A tax rate is determined and a revenue forecast is developed. The results of the model forecasts are compared to actual fuel demanded during forecast periods (months, quarters, and fiscal years).

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 1-5
  • Monograph Title: State and local finance issues : roads and transit
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00392954
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309037247
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: May 31 1985 12:00AM