FORECASTING ACCURACY, TRANSFERABILITY AND UPDATING OF MODAL CONSTANTS IN DISAGGREGATE MODE CHOICE MODELS WITH SIMPLE AND COMPLEX SPECIFICATIONS

This paper examines the forecasting accuracy and transferability of "simple" and "complex" work trip mode choice models in addition to presentation of a simple and efficient procedure for updating alternative specific constants. The "simple" models contain only the total travel time and cost variables in addition to the alternative specific constant(s). Predictions from the "simple" models are compared to predictions from the "complex" mode choice models which include also several socioeconomic variables. The results show that the simple models are no worse and, in fact, are often better predictors than the complex models. Both types of models predict poorly if the modal shares in the prediction sample differ substantially from those used in the sample for model estimation. This problem is resolved after modal constant(s) is updated; then both "simple" and "complex" models transfer remarkably well. (AUthor/TRRL)

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Transport Planning Methods. Proceedings of Seminar N held at the PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, University of Sussex, England, 4-7 July 1983.
  • Corporate Authors:

    PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

    110 Strand
    London WC2,   England 
  • Authors:
    • De H Ghani, Y
    • Talvitie, A
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 1983

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 217-228

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00382861
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Volume P243
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 30 1984 12:00AM