CAR OWNERSHIP FORECASTS 1995-2005

This report provides forecasts of car ownership for the years 1995 to 2005. Time series data were used to develop econometric models of car ownership covering the period 1950 to 1980. Two alternative methods were employed: the trend model which, simply, relates the growth in car ownership to a time trend; and a causal model which seeks to explain the relationship between car ownership and economic variables such as Gross National Product and motoring costs. Both sets of models were of the logistic function type and were estimated using a range of car saturation levels. It was found that income levels as measured by Gross National Product are the most important determinant of car ownership. At current levels, each unit percentage increase in per capita Gross National Product gives rise to a 2 per cent increase in car ownership. The study failed to find any relationship between petrol prices and ownership although there was some evidence that car prices have a negative impact. A range of forecasts are presented relating to alternative scenarios concerning future economic conditions. Taking the median scenario, car ownership is predicted to increase from the 1980 level of 216 cars per thousand persons to 333 cars per thousand by the year 2000. Car numbers which stood at 734,000 in 1980 are expected to double over the same period. (Author)

  • Corporate Authors:

    National Institute for Phys Planning & Constr Res

    St Martin's House, Waterloo Road
    Dublin 4,   Ireland 
  • Authors:
    • Feeney, B P
  • Publication Date: 1984-4

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 28 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00386707
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: RT262
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 30 1984 12:00AM