PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR TEXAS GULF COAST HURRICANE OCCURENCE

Various statistical methods are used to analyze the occurrence of Texas Gulf Coast hurricanes. Simple Poisson, periodic Poisson, and Markov chain models are fitted to the occurrence data for an offshore site near Corpus Christi, Texas. The goodness of the fit of the models is studied, using interarrival time, hazard function, and comparative maximum likelihood tests. Also considered are the autocorrelation function for the data and the effects of varying record lengths. The periodic Poisson model provides the best fit to the data and permits a relatively simple description of cyclical occurence phenomena. (AUTHOR)

• Corporate Authors:

  Society of Petroleum Engineers

  6200 North Central Expressway
  Dallas, TX  United States  75206
• Authors:
  • Russell, L R
  • Schueller, G I
• Publication Date: 1974-3

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 279-288
• Serial:
  • Journal of Petroleum Technology
  • Volume: 26
  • Publisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Hurricanes; Weather forecasting
• Subject Areas: Marine Transportation; Operations and Traffic Management;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00054986
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Maritime Research Center, Kings Point
• Report/Paper Numbers: SPE #4324
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 15 1974 12:00AM