TRANSIT OPERATING COSTS AND FARE REQUIREMENTS FORECASTING BY USING REGRESSION MODELING

Because of increasing operating costs and a reduction in federal operating assistance, transit operators are faced with the reality of increasing fares over the foreseeable future. The traditional approach of holding off on any fare increase and cutting service for as long as possible, then needing to increase fares more than is politically acceptable will result in a new cycle of increasing fares, reduced services, and declining ridership. An approach to intermediate-term forecasting of fare and revenue requirements by using simple regression models is described, and examples are given for alternative fare and service questions that might be raised. Such a procedure will be useful to transit operators in planning for staged changes in fare and service levels so as to avoid drastic and unanticipated ones.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1982/877/877-014.pdf
• Summary URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=TRANSIT+OPERATING+COSTS+AND+FARE+REQUIREMENTS+FORECASTING+BY+USING+REGRESSION+MODELING&author=J.+Bates&publication_year=1982
• Availability:
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Public Transportation Planning and Development. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Bates, John W
• Publication Date: 1982

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Tables;
• Pagination: pp 75-79
• Monograph Title: Urban public transportation planning issues
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 877
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Costs; Elasticity (Economics); Fares; Level of service; Mathematical models; Operating costs; Regression analysis; Revenues; Ridership
• Old TRIS Terms: Automobile costs
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00372420
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309034655
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 29 1983 12:00AM