Uncertainty in Travel Forecasting: Exploratory Modeling and Analysis TMIP-EMAT: A Desk Reference
Traditionally, travel forecasting models have been used to provide single point predictions. That is, a single future scenario is developed, and the model is applied to that scenario. This approach, however, ignores the deep uncertainty that exists in future land use, demographic, and transportation systems inputs, not to mention the uncertainty that exists in the model itself. More importantly, transportation policy decisions made on the basis of such model outputs may be misguided and ineffective. This report demonstrates and motivates the use of travel forecasting models in an exploratory manner that accounts for the inherent uncertainties of the future. Specifically, this report describes the approach that can be supported by a new planning and modeling tool: the Travel Model Improvement Program Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Tool (TMIP-EMAT) that has been developed to facilitate the use of exploratory techniques with travel forecasting models.
- Record URL:
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Corporate Authors:
Cambridge Systematics, Incorporated
101 Station Landing, Suite 410
Medford, MA United States 02155Federal Highway Administration
Office of Planning, Environment and Realty
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590 -
Authors:
- Lemp, Jason
- Rossi, Thomas
- Newman, Jeffrey
- Copperman, Rachel
- Publication Date: 2021-7
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 142p
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Traffic forecasting; Travel demand; Uncertainty
- Identifier Terms: Travel Model Improvement Program
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01787575
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: FHWA-HEP-21-032
- Contract Numbers: DTFH61-16-D00016L
- Files: NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
- Created Date: Nov 10 2021 1:54PM