Opportunities and pathways to decarbonize China’s transportation sector during the fourteenth Five-Year Plan period and beyond

This study provides a technical foundation for China’s climate goals in the 14th Five-Year-Plan (FYP) period (2021-2025) and beyond. China has pledged that its carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will peak by 2030 and zero-carbon transportation will be achieved by 2060. In this study the authors assess the possibilities of reducing climate pollutants under advanced transportation policies. The authors find that without further actions towards mitigation of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, climate pollutant emissions from transportation in China would grow rapidly. Two possible policies, a business-as-usual scenario and a Low Ambition scenario, would produce limited climate benefits in the next five to ten years but would not stabilize or reduce climate pollutant emissions in the longer term. A set of policies for long-term climate pollutant reduction is needed. Such policy leadership, as modeled in the authors’ High Ambition scenario, could reduce climate pollutant emissions by more than 10% at the end of the 14th FYP, and 70-80% by 2050. The authors recommend: 1) A holistic approach to countering climate change and the adoption of strategies and policies that reduce CO₂ and GHG emissions. 2) Introduction of near-term and mid-term GHG emission targets for transportation based on the long-term goals required for zero-carbon emissions in 2060. The authors particularly recommend an ambitious climate pollutant reduction target for the transportation sector by 2050, such as 70%-80%, which the authors demonstrate is feasible. 3) Comprehensive policies to achieve emission reductions, including GHG emission standards for road, marine, and off-road pollution sources; zero-emission vehicle requirements for transportation segments and fleets; creation of ultra-low and zero-emission zones; bans on vehicle refrigerants with high global warming potentials; optimized transportation structures; and promotion of multimodal transportation using low-carbon fuels.

• Record URL:
  https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/decarbonize-china-transport-14th-5-year-plan-oct21.pdf
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• Summary URL:
  https://theicct.org/publications/decarbonize-china-transport-14th-5-year-plan-oct21
• Corporate Authors:

  International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

  1500 K Street NW, Suite 650
  Washington, DC  United States  20005

  Germany. Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety

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• Authors:
  • Jin, Lingzhi
  • Shao, Zhenying
  • Mao, Xiaoli
  • Miller, Joshua
  • He, Hui
  • Isenstadt, Aaron
• Publication Date: 2021-10

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 47p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air quality management; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Exhaust gases; Greenhouse gases; Transportation policy
• Geographic Terms: China
• Subject Areas: Environment; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01787716
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 11 2021 3:21PM