Who Drives, Where, and When? An Evaluation of Behavioral Responses to License-Plated Based Driving Restrictions

In an effort to manage increasing pollution and congestion in cities, regions, and megaregions around the world, governments have implemented various types of driving restriction programs. This report examines the effects of these restrictions and is divided into two chapters. The first provides a critical review of the literature on license-plate-based driving restrictions with a focus on the academic origins and uses of the second-car hypothesis. This hypothesis posits that the policy backfires and leads to increased local pollution due to households purchasing second cars with different final license-plate digits to avoid the restriction. Reviewing 235 papers that reference license-plate- based driving restrictions, the authors only find nine papers that directly test the second-car hypothesis, generally as part of an appendix or secondary analysis. None presents strong empirical evidence that the second-car hypothesis substantially reduces the efficacy of license-plate-based driving restrictions. The second chapter draws on analysis of a large household travel survey, interviews, and a focus group to better understand these behavioral responses to Mexico City’s Hoy No Circula. Purchasing a newer exempt vehicle is a popular approach for wealthier households whose members driver a lot. Two-thirds of vehicles on the road on weekdays and Saturdays have an exempt hologram type. These vehicles are more likely to be driven by wealthier residents during peak hours and in the most congested, central parts of the metropolitan area.

• Dataset URL:
  https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/1MYQ74
• Summary URL:
  https://library.ctr.utexas.edu/Presto/catalogid=39613
• Record URL:
  https://sites.utexas.edu/cm2/files/2021/09/Guerra_Y4_CM2-53_Final-Project-Report_081221-2.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/58949
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This document was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program. Supporting datasets available at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/1MYQ74
• Corporate Authors:

  University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia

  School of Design, 210 South 34th Street
  Philadelphia, PA  United States  19104

  Cooperative Mobility for Competitive Megaregions (CM2)

  University of Texas at Austin
  Austin, TX  United States  78712

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Guerra, Erick
  • 0000-0002-7769-2581
  • Reyes, Ariadna
  • 0000-0002-8849-3772
  • Sandweiss, Andrew
  • Park, David
• Publication Date: 2021-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: Final Project Report
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 58p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Congestion management systems; Focus groups; License plates; Travel behavior; Travel surveys
• Geographic Terms: Mexico City (Mexico)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01785774
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: CM2-52
• Contract Numbers: 69A3551747135
• Files: UTC, NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
• Created Date: Oct 26 2021 11:16AM