Arctic Shipping Guidance from the CMIP6 Ensemble on Operational and Infrastructural Timescales

With climate change affecting sea ice in the Arctic region, there is potential for new accessibility in Arctic shipping. This article outlines scenarios examining arctic shipping, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models, route projections, and accessibility. Marine accessibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is examined on two timescales, operational and infrastructure. The authors find high variability and uncertainty when it comes to voyage time especially at the end of the shipping season until 2045. From 2045 onward navigation risk reduces while risk to infrastructure necessary to support arctic shipping increases.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03172-3
• Record URL:
  https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP68694.html
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01650009
• Authors:
  • Li, Xueke
  • Stephenson, Scott R
  • Lynch, Amanda H
  • Goldstein, Michael A
  • Bailey, David A
  • Veland, Siri
• Publication Date: 2021

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 19p
• Serial:
  • Climate Change
  • Volume: 167
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISSN: 0165-0009
  • EISSN: 1573-1480

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accessibility; Forecasting; Risk assessment; Routes and routing; Sea ice; Shipping
• Identifier Terms: Northern Sea Route
• Geographic Terms: Arctic Ocean
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01781948
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 20 2021 2:52PM