Pathways to Decarbonization: The European Passenger Car Market in the Years 2021–2035

In 2021 the European Commission presented revised emission levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) for new automobiles. This White Paper assesses the potential for reduction of CO₂ emissions, estimating costs for current policies and several possible policies: 1) In the Adopted Policies scenario, manufacturers comply with the goals but do nothing to achieve additional reductions; 2) In the Lower Ambition scenario, goals for 2025, 2030, and 2035 are strengthened, and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) comprise about half of new sales by 2035; 3) In the Moderate Ambition scenario, the CO₂ targets are increased and BEVs penetrate the market by about 50% by 2030 and 100% by 2035; 4) In the Higher Ambition scenario, complete CO₂ reduction of the new vehicle fleet is achieved by 2030 due to apid adoption of BEVs. All these scenarios cause manufacturing costs to increase from the 2021 baseline, from about €400 in the Adopted Policies scenario in 2025 to about €1,700 in the Higher Ambition scenario in 2030. In 2035, manufacturing costs decline compared to 2030, due chiefly to improved electric vehicle (EV) technology. Fuel cost savings throughout an EV’s life compensate for these initial investments. By 2025 the Moderate Ambition and Higher Ambition scenarios provide the best cost-benefit for purchasers, with initial technology investments fully paid within four to six years of purchase. By 2030, the Higher Ambition scenario ensures the quickest payback time (two years) and the largest savings. By 2035, technology investments are recovered within one to two years for all scenarios except the Adopted Policies, with the highest savings in the Moderate and Higher Ambition scenarios. From the social perspective the scenarios with the highest CO₂ reduction are the ones providing the greatest savings. The authors’ analysis shows that it is important to strengthen not just the 2030 goal but also the 2025 goal, and to set annual targets in stead of step-wise goals. Earlier reduction of CO₂ would increase savings for purchasers and society and ensure a smoother transition to EVs in anticipation of CO₂ reductions by 2030 and 2035.

• Record URL:
  https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/decarbonize-EU-PVs-may2021.pdf
• 
• Summary URL:
  https://theicct.org/publications/decarbonize-EU-PVs-may2021?utm_source=ICCT+mailing+list&utm_campaign=80679151aa-lately_from_feb2018_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ef73e76009-80679151aa-451744717
• Corporate Authors:

  International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

  1500 K Street NW, Suite 650
  Washington, DC  United States  20005

  International Council on Clean Transportation Europe

  Berlin,   Germany  10178

  European Climate Foundation

  Brussels,   Belgium 

  Climate Imperative Foundation

  San Francisco, CA  United States  94111
• Authors:
  • Mock, Peter
  • Díaz, Sonsoles
• Publication Date: 2021-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: White Paper
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 48p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Carbon dioxide; Exhaust gases; Forecasting; Private passenger vehicles; Regulation
• Geographic Terms: European Union
• Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01780783
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 30 2021 2:48PM