Estimation of Exceedance Probability of Scour on Bridges Using Reliability Principles
Scour is one of the most relevant causes of bridge collapse. Most existing scour models have been focused on estimating scour depth as input for bridge design. This estimation is mainly deterministic. Parameter uncertainty has been considered to estimate expected scour as well. This framework is suitable for bridge design but has limitations for risk analysis of bridge networks, in which exceedance probabilities are needed. In this paper the authors use the first-order reliability method to estimate the probability that the actual scour will exceed the design scour, considering the uncertainty in hydraulic and hydrological parameters. The procedure was applied to a case study in Chile using the flood-flow history between 30 and 60 years of eight fluviometric stations. The local, contraction, and general scour were estimated for return periods between 2 and 500 years. The exceedance probability obtained was highly dependent on the uncertainty in annual maximum flow, Froude’s number, top width, and riverbed longitudinal slope.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/10840699
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Supplemental Notes:
- © 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Authors:
- Contreras-Jara, Manuel
- Echaveguren, Tomás
- Chamorro, Alondra
- Vargas-Baecheler, Jose
- Publication Date: 2021-8
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: References;
- Pagination: 04021029
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Serial:
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
- Volume: 26
- Issue Number: 8
- Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
- ISSN: 1084-0699
- Serial URL: http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jhyeff
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Bridges; Case studies; Collapse; Risk analysis; Scour; Uncertainty
- Geographic Terms: Chile
- Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Highways; Hydraulics and Hydrology;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01782091
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS, ASCE
- Created Date: Sep 22 2021 11:54AM