A SPECTRAL FORECAST OF VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS IN NSW BY AGE AND CATEGORY OF VEHICLE

The paper examines the vehicle registration statistics of New South Wales for the years 1950-1979 inclusive, together with the age and category of vehicle profile as reported in the ABS Motor Vehicle Census of September 1979. It is shown that total vehicle registrations excluding motor cycles are sympathetic to analysis by logistic modelling techniques using resident population as the only significant parameter, the relevant saturation ratio being 0.65. Heavy- duty commercial vehicles were also responsive to similar techniques, the relevant saturation ratio being 0.06 with a slower time response. No discernible pattern could be reliably traced in motor cycle registrations although the current trend is towards 0.02 per head of population at AD 2000. This allowed a detailed forecast of registrations by major category to be developed. The ABS Census profiles were also found responsive to logistic analysis techniques using number of vehicles newly registered in a year as the significant parameter. After harmonising with the NSW data for December 1979, the December 1979 profiles were generated and then run forward in tandem with total vehicles to generate new vehicles registered by category and year and hence the expected age profile by category and year to the year 2000 AD (a). The paper was presented as Paper 31-Session 9-Research into Practice (SAE 82162). The number of the covering abstract of the conference is TRIS no. 367871. (TRRL)

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Second Conference on Traffic, Energy and Emissions, Melbourne, May 1982. Program and Papers.
• Corporate Authors:

  Society of Automotive Engineers

  191 Royal Parade
  Parkville, Victoria 3052,   Australia 

  ARRB

  Melbourne, Victoria  Australia 
• Authors:
  • Brain, R
• Conference:
  • Second Conference on Traffic, Energy and Emissions, Melbourne, May 1982. Program and Papers.
• Publication Date: 1982-5

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 1-19

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Age; Automobiles; Classification; Conferences; Forecasting; Logits; Motor vehicles; Motorcycles; Ownership; Population; Registrations; Service life; Statistical analysis; Statistics; Trucks; Vehicle classification; Vehicles
• Uncontrolled Terms: Vehicle age
• Geographic Terms: Australia
• ITRD Terms: 1757: Age; 8006: Australia; 1243: Car; 8513: Classification; 8525: Conference; 132: Forecast; 1236: Lorry; 1221: Motorcycle; 335: Population; 6555: Statistics; 1255: Vehicle; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Motor Carriers; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Vehicles and Equipment; I90: Vehicles;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00367875
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Report/Paper Numbers: Paper 31, HS-035 278
• Files: HSL, ITRD, TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 28 1984 12:00AM