Incorporating accident liability into crash risk analysis: A multidimensional risk source approach

In the field of traffic safety, the occurrence of accidents remains a cause of concern for road regulators as well as users. Exploring risk factors inducing the accidents and quantifying the accident risk will not only benefit the prevention and control of traffic accidents but also assist in developing effective risk propagation model for road accidents. This study uses detailed accident record data to mine the risk factors affecting the occurrence of accidents, and quantify the accident risk under the combination of risk factors. First, by reviewing relevant literature and analyzing historical accident, the authors construct a multi-dimension characterization framework of risk factors with bi-level structure. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is applied to supplement and improve the framework. Next, under this framework, the authors identify the risk factors in traffic accident record, and analyze the statistical characteristics from the level of risk sources and risk characteristics. Then, the concept of accident liability weight is proposed to measure the impact of risk factors on accident occurrence. Through the liability affirmation of risk factors, the accident probability is updated. Last, the authors establish an accident risk quantify model (ARQM) based on the mean mutual information to compare the likelihood of accidents in different scenarios. In addition, the authors compare the accident probability and risk under equivalent liability and liability affirmation, as well as give some fundamental ideas regarding how to effectively prevent accidents.

Language

  • English

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01768092
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 17 2021 3:41PM