Estimating bicycle demand in an aggressive environment

The perception of the environment where people move can be a key factor in choosing a transport mode for their daily trips. For example, many cities lack adequate infrastructure or experience environmental conditions that do not favor cycling. The authors examine the potential demand for using the bicycle as a transport alternative in trips to college in Barranquilla, Colombia, a city with fairly aggressive environmental conditions for cycling. The authors designed a Stated Choice experiment geared to students and staff living within three kilometers of two college campuses in the city and traveling by bus or bike. The authors also considered people’s perceptions in an effort to understand the reasons why only 2% of Barranquilla’s daily trips are made by bicycle. The authors' mode choice analysis incorporated two latent variables (unsafety/insecurity and convenience), in addition to typical level-of-service attributes, such as travel time and cost. The authors found that the perception of unsafety/insecurity has an important negative effect on the probability of using bicycle; the possibility of suffering an accident or being mugged, weighs much more than the possible economic savings and improvements in health associated with using the bicycle. In terms of convenience, the authors' results suggest that it could be just as important to have showers on campus as bike lanes available on the route. Also, investment in facilities such as free parking for bikes, and strategies such as planting trees in bike paths and sidewalks to provide shade, could significantly encourage cycling.

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    • © 2020 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Abstract reprinted with permission of Taylor & Francis.
  • Authors:
    • Gutiérrez, Margareth
    • Cantillo, Víctor
    • Arellana, Julián
    • Ortúzar, Juan de Dios
  • Publication Date: 2021-2


  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01769183
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 13 2021 3:01PM