Energy Transition Scenarios in the Strategic Freight Model Basgoed

A transition from the use of conventional energy carriers to more sustainable alternatives is an important policy objective to mitigate the impacts of our energy consumption on climate change. This transition involves changes in the use of commodities and freight transport. This paper addresses how the authors improved the strategic freight transport model BasGoed for the Netherlands to better forecast the impacts of energy transition scenarios on freight transport demand. The strategic freight transport model BasGoed was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the basic needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. BasGoed produces forecasts for road, rail, barge and sea shipping. The forecasts BasGoed produces are input for sectoral models of road, rail and barge transport. Energy carriers such as coal, lignite, crude oil and fossil fuels make up for a substantial part of all freight transport in The Netherlands. The increase or decline of transport demand of these commodities is closely correlated to the speed of the energy transition. The uncertainty in the future growth levels of energy carriers are one of the bigger uncertainties in forecasting future freight demands, especially for rail and barge because of high market-shares for transporting energy carriers. The strategic transport model BasGoed is used as a policy instrument to assess impacts of policy changes. In coming years, a lot of policy measures related to reducing CO₂ emission will be considered. The strategic transport model BasGoed is improved to better capture the outcomes of the energy transition to be able to assess policy measures related to reducing CO₂ emission. The global mix of energy carriers in energy production are starting point in the input scenario. These global targets are translated into changes in economic structure (production and consumption of commodities by economic sector) using the outcomes of Energy System Simulation model (ENSYSI). This model is developed by the Dutch Environmental assessment agency (PBL) and provides quantitative information regarding developments in energy demand and production in period 2010- 2050. BasGoed uses the existing economic module of the SMILE+ model for freight demand generation at regional level. This module is based on an input-output framework and translates economic scenarios in regional freight production and attraction forecasts (domestic and import/export). The economic model updates yearly a make-use table with 105 products and 83 sectors. The growth rates of these 105 products are related to sectoral growth rates of production, consumption and export. The energy transition scenario of ENSYSI is incorporated in the economic mode of BasGoed by altering the production function in the use table by substituting one product or service by another one. Changes in final consumption (i.e. investing in isolation of residential houses and therefor using less energy) are captured by altering growth rates of consumption for certain sectors. Besides overall growth levels for different commodities the energy transition scenarios also have an impact on the spatial transport patterns of energy carriers. The energetic use of coal will decline the coming years due to the closure of coal power plants; non energetic use for steal production, however, may have a different development. Usage of both forms have a different spatial distribution. Therefor a new module in BasGoed is developed to capture a disruptive spatial scenario. For certain commodities a new spatial distribution in terms of production and attraction per zone can be inserted in the model. The improvements of the BasGoed model are finalized and the set-up of the energy transition scenarios are currently being made. The energy transition scenario’s including modelling results will be finished before the conference.

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  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Abstract used by permission of Association for European Transport. Alternative title: Energy Transition Scenarios in the Strategic Freight Demand Model Basgoed
  • Corporate Authors:

    Association for European Transport (AET)

    1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
    London W14 0RL,    
  • Authors:
    • Wesseling, Bart
    • de Bok, Michiel
    • Spruijt, John
    • Usmani, Omar
    • van Bree, Thijmen
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 2020


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Bibliography; Figures; Tables;
  • Pagination: 16p
  • Monograph Title: European Transport Conference 2020

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01766115
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 9 2021 12:04PM