Developing a New Cash Flow Expenditures Model Considering the Flexibilities Offered by the Design-Build–Finance (DBF) and Public-Private Partnership (P3) Project Delivery Methods

State departments of transportation (state DOTs) have implemented transportation financial plans to utilize federal and state transportation funding within at least a four-year horizon and possibly longer. It is critical for state DOTs to maintain adequate cash balance that helps establish a clear transportation plan and program. Over the past decades, an array of alternative project delivery methods has been introduced to enhance the financing capabilities of the state DOT. The new delivery methods need to be properly treated in developing more realistic cash flow models for the project expenditures. The overarching objective of this research is to develop a forecasting model for expenditure cash flow for the GDOT design and construction program, taking into account flexibilities offered by the innovative project delivery methods, such as design–build (DB), design–build–finance (DBF) and public–private partnership (P3). To achieve the research objectives, current state of the practices in schedule of value and payment for design and construction activities in several state DOTs are reviewed and best practices are identified. An expenditure cash flow forecasting model is developed for transportation design–build projects via a case-based reasoning (CBR) approach. The developed model generates accurate forecasts with limited training data and high-level describable project attributes. The proposed model can handle inputs with missing data. An Excel® Visual Basic for Application (VBA) tool is developed for project managers by using the proposed CBR model. The significance of the developed cash flow model lies on its capabilities to inform the Department about its actual future financial obligations and, thereby, effectively use its limited capital to deliver more needed projects. The new cash flow model shows opportunities for deferred payments and other savings anticipated in the alternative delivery models. The proposed model was tested and confirmed by all the completed transportation design–build projects in the State of Georgia, ranging from April 2007 to January 2020.

• Record URL:
  http://g92018.eos-intl.net/eLibSQL14_G92018_Documents/18-13.pdf
• 
• Record URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/58013
• Corporate Authors:

  Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

  Economics of Sustainable Built Environment (ESBE) Lab
  280 Ferst Drive, 1st Floor
  Atlanta, GA  United States  30332-0680

  Georgia Department of Transportation

  Office of Performance-based Management and Research
  600 West Peachtree St. NW
  Atlanta, GA  United States  30308

  Federal Highway Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590

  U.S. Department of Transportation

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Ashuri, Baabak
  • 0000-0002-4320-1035
  • Liang, Yunping
  • Beak, Minsoo
  • Li, Mingshu
  • Zeng, Shiqin
• Publication Date: 2020-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 109p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case based reasoning; Cash flow; Construction projects; Design build; Expenditures; Financial analysis; Financing; Predictive models; Project delivery; Public private partnerships
• Identifier Terms: Georgia Department of Transportation
• Geographic Terms: Georgia
• Subject Areas: Construction; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01762977
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: FHWA-GA-21-1813, Georgia DOT Research Project No. 18-13
• Contract Numbers: RP 18-13
• Files: NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Jan 29 2021 4:28PM