Highway safety assessment and improvement through crash prediction by injury severity and vehicle damage using Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal model and Joint Negative Binomial-Generalized Ordered Probit Fractional Split model

Predicting crash counts by severity plays a dominant role in identifying roadway sites that experience overrepresented crashes, or an increase in the potential for crashes with higher severity levels. Valid and reliable methodologies for predicting highway accidents by severity are necessary in assessing contributing factors to severe highway crashes, and assisting the practitioners in allocating safety improvement resources. This paper uses urban and suburban intersection data in Connecticut, along with two sophisticated modeling approaches, i.e., a Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal (MVPLN) model and a Joint Negative Binomial-Generalized Ordered Probit Fractional Split (NB-GOPFS) model to assess the methodological rationality and accuracy by accommodating for the unobserved factors in predicting crash counts by severity level. Furthermore, crash prediction models based on vehicle damage level are estimated using the same two methodologies to supplement the injury severity in estimating crashes by severity when the sample mean of severe injury crashes (e.g., fatal crashes) is very low. The model estimation results highlight the presence of correlations of crash counts among severity levels, as well as the crash counts in total and crash proportions by different severity levels. A comparison of results indicates that injury severity and vehicle damage are highly consistent. Crash severity counts are significantly correlated and should be accommodated in crash prediction models. The findings of this research could help select sound and reliable methodologies for predicting highway accidents by injury severity. When crash data samples have challenges associated with the low observed sampling rates for severe injury crashes, this research also confirmed that vehicle damage can be appropriate as an alternative to injury severity in crash prediction by severity.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2020.11.005
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437520301328
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/1800052
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2020 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Wang, Kai
  • Bhowmik, Tanmoy
  • 0000-0002-0258-1692
  • Zhao, Shanshan
  • Eluru, Naveen
  • Jackson, Eric
• Publication Date: 2020

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Serial:
  • Journal of Safety Research
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0022-4375
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00224375

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash injuries; Crash severity; High risk locations; Injury severity; Intersections; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction
• Geographic Terms: Connecticut
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01762153
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 24 2020 3:13PM