Mapping the Intercounty Transmission Risk of COVID-19 In New York State Via Historical Commute Data

The novel coronavirus disease of 2019(COVID-19) started at the end of 2019 has developed into a worldwide pandemic. As an epic center of the epidemic outbreak, New York state in the U.S. is facing life-and-death moments. The answer to how to distribute limited medical resources to the disastrous areas as well as to the risky areas is critical in local disease control practice. This paper investigates the COVID-19 transmission risk between different counties in the state of New York during the first month of the pandemic. This study constructs a comparable measure of COVID-19 outbreak status in different counties and quantifies their levels of severity. The study then conducts a transportation network analysis using historical inter-county commute data to establish transportation connections between counties and measures the county’s ability to spread/receive the disease. Results show that Queens, Kings, Westchester, Nassau, Bronx, Suffolk, and New York were all identified as the outbreak centers. Queens, Kings, Westchester, New York, and Monroe were major spreaders because of high volume, bi-directional commuting patterns. Saratoga and Oneida spread fewer outgoing cases, while Suffolk and Bronx were more affected by incoming cases. All other counties in the state are regarded as “community spreaders” with relatively low inter-county commutes, among which Rockland, Richmond, Essex, Orange were at mid-levels of severity in the outbreak. besides current outbreak centers as listed in results, specific attention should be given to Monroe, Saratoga, and Oneida. This study shows the role of transportation in facilitating disease control practice.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; Maps; References;
  • Pagination: 17p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01767272
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-21-00484
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 23 2020 11:20AM