Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram Parameter Estimation: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

The knowledge of macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) of a network and its impacting factors can help to manage the traffic across the network better and increase the network throughput. Network MFDs are mostly derived using empirical data or simulation, while analytical methods have also been proposed for estimation of corridor MFDs with limited extensions to network MFDs. Stochastic method of cuts (SMoC) is one of the few analytical MFD estimation methods that incorporates the most number of network and control characteristics as input parameters. In this study, we have empirically validated this method for corridor MFD estimation and developed a method to estimate the SMoC parameters based on empirical network MFDs using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method in order to draw insights into the definition of model parameters in the network case and investigate their impact on the shape of the MFD. The method resulted in mostly plausible and statistically significant parameter estimates. The observed inconsistencies in the estimated value are later discussed in a detailed manner and solutions have been presented to remedy such inconsistencies.

• Record URL:
  https://annualmeeting.mytrb.org/OnlineProgram/Details/15865
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ACP50 Standing Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Aghamohammadi, Rafegh
  • Laval, Jorge A
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 100th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2021-1-5 to 2021-1-29
• Date: 2021

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 19p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Approximation (Mathematics); Diagrams; Maximum likelihood method; Stochastic processes; Traffic models; Transportation corridors
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01764009
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-21-04353
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 4 2021 10:57AM