Techno Economic Evaluation of Low Carbon Scenarios with High Fuel Cell Vehicle  Penetration in California

Zero-emission vehicles will play a central role in California’s efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Even if hydrogen fuel cell vehicles play only a supporting role to electric vehicles, their numbers may grow dramatically. This study considers a scenario where FCEVs begin to achieve significant sales share by 2025, rising rapidly through 2035, for 10  vehicle categories. The study employed a  transition model to track vehicle sales, stocks, and their resulting hydrogen demand within the state. The study also estimates number of hydrogen production and refueling facilities required for next 15 years. Cost of hydrogen for different production and delivery scenarios is  estimated using DOE’s models and aggregated with the scenario tool. FCEV stocks reach 1.8 million by 2035. Long-haul trucks are the biggest consumers of hydrogen. Fuel-economy will improve for all vehicle categories and the annual travel-per vehicle will remain constant or decrease after 2025. By 2035, the annual hydrogen demand in California crosses 1 million tons. Nearly 80 central production plants, each with 30 tonne/day capacity, would be needed by 2035, requiring  capital investments of $4.1 billion. Rapid increases in the number of refueling stations must occur between 2025 (113 stations) and 2035 (1144 stations). High volumes trigger  greater scale and learning effects for electrolytic hydrogen over steam methane reformed hydrogen in the long-term. Net electricity demand from electrolysis will be 32.6 TWh/year  by 2035, roughly 10% of the total grid demand. Hydrogen transport using  pipelines with higher refueling station capacities are cost-effective pathways, at high utilization rates.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 23p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01763888
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-21-01781
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 23 2020 11:13AM