Investigating the sensitivity of electric vehicle out-of-home charging demand to changes in fleet makeup and vehicle usage, a case study for California 2030

Accurately predicting the spatial distribution and charging demand of future electric vehicles (EVs) is vital to directing investment in charging infrastructure and planning policy interventions. To date, this expansion has been heavily focused in wealthy cities and suburbs, among commuters, and among households able to charge their vehicles at home. The expansion of EV ownership will include both changes in where the vehicles are owned as well as how they are used and charged. This paper demonstrates methods to to generate projections of predict where the expansion of EV ownership is likeliest to occur under current market characteristics and allow for testing of scenarios of future characteristics. These methods are demonstrated with an analysis of California, using a scenario of 3 million battery electric vehicles and 2 million plugin-hybrid EVs, to match the state’s goal of 5 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030. These projections are combined with a model for charging behavior to generate scenarios of demand for charging away from home under various fleet characteristics.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 17p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01763884
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-21-04097
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 23 2020 11:13AM