Probabilistic Deterioration Modeling of Bridge Element Condition with Random Effects

Bridge deterioration models help engineers and bridge managers to track and predict the future physical conditions of bridge elements. With reliable deterioration models, highway agencies can efficiently allocate funding for bridge maintenance, and customize maintenance schedules to meet available agency budgets. Planning of bridge maintenance is ever important in this current climate of competing infrastructure needs and funding shortfalls. Predicting bridge condition is challenging due to the inherent random nature of factors impacting deterioration, the existence of unobserved variables that are not measured, panel nature of the data, and the effects of bridge-specific correlation. Failure to account for these factors lead to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates detrimental to predicting bridge condition. This paper estimated bridge element deterioration models for bridges on state highways in South Carolina using an ordered probit model with random effects specification that takes cognizance of the randomness and panel nature of the bridge data. Estimated marginal effects provided additional information on the effect of various factors on bridge deterioration. Climatic and other new variables included in the models provided insights on bridge deterioration in the state. The estimated deterioration models are expected to provide better accuracy and facilitate bridge management in South Carolina.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 19p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01763609
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-21-00677
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Dec 23 2020 11:07AM