Modeling and interpreting the COVID-19 intervention strategy of China: A human mobility view

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has proved a globally prevalent outbreak since December 2019. As a focused country to alleviate the epidemic impact, China implemented a range of public health interventions to prevent the disease from further transmission, including the pandemic lockdown in Wuhan and other cities. This paper establishes China’s mobility network by a flight dataset and proposes a model without epidemiological parameters to indicate the spread risks through the network, which is termed as epidemic strength. By simply adjusting an intervention parameter, traffic volumes under different travel-restriction levels can be simulated to analyze how the containment strategy can mitigate the virus dissemination through traffic. This approach is successfully applied to a network of Chinese provinces and the epidemic strength is smoothly interpreted by flow maps. Through this node-to-node interpretation of transmission risks, both overall and detailed epidemic hazards are properly analyzed, which can provide valuable intervention advice during public health emergencies.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242761
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2020 Haonan Chen et al.
• Authors:
  • Chen, Haonan
  • He, Jing
  • Song, Wenhui
  • Wang, Lianchao
  • Wang, JiaBao
  • Chen, Yijin
• Publication Date: 2020

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: e0242761
• Serial:
  • PLoS One
  • Volume: 15
  • Issue Number: 11
  • Publisher: Public Library of Science
  • EISSN: 1932-6203
  • Serial URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Communicable diseases; Emergencies; Epidemiology; Mathematical models; Mobility; Policy; Public health; Strategic planning; Traffic volume
• Identifier Terms: COVID-19
• Geographic Terms: China
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01761179
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 30 2020 3:12PM