Potential Impacts of Electric Vehicles, Maas and Automated Vehicles in Australia

This research investigates the potential impacts of the introduction of electric vehicles (EVs), automated vehicles (AVs) and the development of ‘Mobility as a Service’ (MaaS) on transport infrastructure usage to 2051 from an Australian perspective. These transport disruptors are expected to affect the function and use of the private motor car as people have come to know it over past decades and will change people’s behaviour and the way they own and use their cars, reshaping how people think about our future transport and mobility networks. Across Australia, such technologies are also cited as solutions to our congestion problems, however, the actual impacts are debated and likely to vary by geography within a city. The overall objective of this paper is to collate and provide current and reliable information to provide an informed discussion as inputs to demand forecasting and scenario testing of transport infrastructure. The following issues will be addressed: • Estimation of the proportion of electrically powered passenger and freight vehicles in the fleet, as used for transport demand modelling. • Assessment of the potential for road capacity changes from increasing use of automated vehicles. • Estimation of the scale of changes in trip generation from automated vehicles (e.g. private trips by people currently unable to use or access a car) and modal split between private cars and other mobility alternatives. • Assessment of the potential impact of automated trucks on freight operations, including modal share held by road and rail. • Examination of the extent of adoption of alternative methods to deliver personal mobility over the period to 2051. • Assessment of possible changes in vehicle fleet provision and ownership • Identification of potential scenarios to investigate the potential scale of impacts on transport infrastructure use. This research and investigation indicates that there is a high degree of uncertainty around these matters and any assumptions around the rate of adoption or the level of impact of these issues has high degrees of uncertainty. For transport planning scenario testing and modelling the key issues relate to the timing of transition to levels of penetration that will affect travel behaviours including: • Impacts on network capacity and network travel speeds • Impacts on travel demands including mode choice. Based on the analysis undertaken, a scenario testing framework is proposed to test alternative futures over the short, medium and long term incorporating uncertainty and alternative assumptions.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Pagination: 35p
  • Monograph Title: European Transport Conference 2019

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01751289
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 20 2020 3:17PM