Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses
Transit buses are well positioned to be the next heavy-duty vehicle market segment to significantly electrify. However, most fleet managers will only purchase battery electric buses (BEBs) if they are cost-effective when compared to traditional diesel buses over their lifetime. In this report, this comparison is done through the Vehicle and Infrastructure Cash-Flow Evaluation for BEB (VICE-BEB) model. This model determines the net present value (NPV) and the payback period for investment in BEBs and charging infrastructure. Numerous economic analyses have been done for specific fleets, but this analysis strives to help all transit bus fleets determine if BEBs would be cost-effective. It does this by establishing a baseline fleet with typical or average values for the parameters of interest and then addressing variations to these parameters in a simplified way that allows specific fleets to place themselves on a spectrum based on key parameters. The baseline fleet was determined through an extensive literature search and fleet survey. The baseline scenario invested in four BEBs and four depot chargers, received a grant of $1,500,000 (or $375,000 per bus with charger), and saw an NPV of $785,000 over the 12-year bus life. When determining if BEB investment would be cost-effective (meaning lower total cost of ownership than diesel bus), fleet managers and grant administrators need to know which fleet parameters to prioritize. The most important parameters are the ones that are highly influential to NPV and highly volatile. The relative influence of parameters was determined by independently swinging 33 key VICE-BEB inputs ±50% and recording the corresponding swing in project NPV. The volatility of each parameter was determined by dividing the range of inputs found in a literature search by the baseline value.
- Record URL:
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Corporate Authors:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
15013 Denver West Parkway
Golden, CO United States 80401 -
Authors:
- Johnson, Caley
- Nobler, Erin
- Eudy, Leslie
- Jeffers, Matthew
- Publication Date: 2020-6
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Edition: Technical Report
- Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 45p
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Cost effectiveness; Economic analysis; Electric buses; Financial analysis; Investments; Present value; Service life; Transit buses
- Subject Areas: Economics; Finance; Public Transportation; Vehicles and Equipment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01744858
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: NREL/TP-5400-74832
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jul 11 2020 5:27PM