Estimating Icebergs Hazards in the Barents Sea Using a Numerical Iceberg Drift and Deterioration Model

The probability of iceberg occurrence is a major driver for the choice and design of concepts for exploitation of hydrocarbon resources in the northern parts of the Barents Sea. The sparse data on iceberg occurrence in the Barents Sea is therefore a complicating factor. Iceberg drift and deterioration models are able to deliver a wealth of relevant data, such as occurrence probabilities, size distributions, drift speed distributions, and so on. At the same time, the representativity of the results are difficult to assess. The effect of uncertainties in the forcing data and the model parameterizations may be quantified by ensemble modeling techniques, to the extent computational time allows such exercises to be carried out. However, when estimating iceberg occurrence probabilities, the results are sensitive to the numbers of icebergs being released to the Barents Sea from the production sites at Svalbard, Franz Josef Land and Novaja Zemlja. These numbers are unknown. In this paper the authors present a study where a numerical iceberg drift and deterioration model is used to produce a hindcast archive for iceberg trajectories in the Barents Sea. Based on the hindcast dataset, iceberg occurrence probabilities are calculated for the Wisting oil and gas field. The inherent uncertainties and sensitivities are quantified, and the applicability of the results in practical design is discussed in this context.

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  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01745125
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 1 2020 2:41PM