IMPACT OF THE FUTURE MERCHANT FLEET ON COAST GUARD OPERATING AND SUPPORT PROGRAMS OVER THE NEXT 25 YEARS

The objectives of this study were to assemble a forecast of the composition of the future merchant fleet; to conduct a macro-level assessment of Coast Guard program requirements over the next 25 years; and to evaluate program action options. The study began by identifying Coast Guard operating and support programs likely to be affected by future merchant ships. Clientele which these programs serve were also identified and grouped. Merchant ship/fleet parameters were identified and evaluated for importance to Coast Guard programs by a panel of Maritime Administration and Coast Guard personnel. Each of 12 parameters was projected under conditions imposed by 3 different future scenarios. This analysis produced a list of issues of significance to the program; profiles of the future fleet resulted from quantifying the assumptions, causes, and effects implied by the scenarios. Relationships among the issues, programs, and clientele groups were analyzed program by program to determine their combined effect. Program action options were recommended as a result of this analysis, and major implications for support programs not directly affected by the future fleet were identified. The study concluded that many Coast Guard programs (principally Commercial Vessel Safety and Port Safety and Security) will be affected and that hazardous materials and terrorism will result in major impacts on the Coast Guard. (Author)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Forecasting International Limited

    Arlington, VA  United States 

    United States Coast Guard

    2100 Second Street, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20593
  • Authors:
    • Cetron, M J
    • McFadden, C F
    • Nelsen, A K
    • Sugarek, S E
  • Publication Date: 1981-4

Media Info

  • Pagination: 445 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00346660
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: USCG-D-44-81
  • Contract Numbers: DO-78-3023
  • Files: NTIS
  • Created Date: Jan 29 2003 12:00AM