PROJECTION OF US TRANSPORTATION NEEDS FOR BEYOND 1990: A MARKET FOR ADVANCED VEHICLES

The transportation milieu in which advanced vehicles (AV), principally electric-powered vehicles, will have to compete for a market share in the US is discussed, and forecasts of the AV market to the year 2000 are made considering petroleum supplies, electric power demand, economics, and environmental impacts. It is concluded that there are markets for AVs under certain scenarios of the future, but the competition in the market place from gasoline-like synthetic fuels; alcohol fuels; new technology, such as engines and telecommunications; and different ways of operating the transportation system, e.g. ridesharing, will be substantial. The internal combustion engined vehicle will continue to be improved significantly in terms of energy consumption if liquid fuels remain an issue. Therefore, the conventional vehicle will remain a barrier to the introduction of any new technology. The barrier is simple economics, purchase cost and life-cycle cost. Advanced vehicle innovators will not only have to demonstrate technological feasibility but economic superiority in a market filled with the products of other innovators including those with a mature technology, the ICE. Utilities should have sufficient capacity for two or more decades to handle offpeak charging of EHVs but acid rain from coal power plant emissions will remain a major environmental problem, which can only raise the cost of electricity and thus AV operation. All this will tax the creativity of the AV innovator. (ERA citation 81:025879)

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Advanced Technology Seminar, Pasadena, CA, 8 December 1980.
• Corporate Authors:

  Argonne National Laboratory

  9700 South Cass Avenue
  Argonne, IL  United States  60439

  Department of Energy

  1000 Independence Avenue, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20585
• Authors:
  • Bernard III, M J
• Publication Date: 1980-12-8

Media Info

• Pagination: 18 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Advanced vehicle control systems; Alcohols; Demand; Economics; Electric power; Electric vehicles; Energy resources; Environmental impacts; Equipment; Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Hybrid vehicles; Internal combustion engines; Markets; Needs assessment; Research projects; Ridesharing; Synthetic fuels; Technological innovations; Transportation; Vehicles
• Uncontrolled Terms: Research programs
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Old TRIS Terms: Aaps; Advanced vehicles; Energy shortage; Power demand
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Transportation (General); Vehicles and Equipment; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00343868
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: CONF-801242-7
• Contract Numbers: W-31-109-ENG-38
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 23 1982 12:00AM