Air traffic forecast in post-liberalization context: A dynamic linear models approach

The process of air transport liberalization in Colombia began in 1991. Liberalization entailed the entry of private capital into the airport sector which subsequently led, in several temporary phases, to the privatization of the country’s main airports. Simultaneously, new air operators entered the market. This new market situation, supported by the complete deregulation of airfares, generated a dynamic and sustained growth of air transport in Colombia for two decades. Within the context of post-liberalization, this article presents a forecast (medium-term - 5 years period) of air traffic in the country’s main airport using DLMs (Dynamic Linear Models). It has the following advantages vs. the usual forecast calculation methodologies: It detects stochastic tendencies that are hidden in the time series. It also detects structural changes that allow estimating the variable effect of exogenous shocks over time without increasing the number of parameters. From the results obtained, it should be noted that the application of DLMs presents MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values below 1%, which guarantees predictions of higher accuracy and thus introduces a new alternative model to develop reliable forecasts in air transport, at least in the medium-term.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.3846/aviation.2020.12273
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/16487788
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2020 Yesid Rodriguez et al. Published by VGTU Press.
• Authors:
  • Rodriguez, Yesid
  • Pineda, Wilmer
  • Olariaga, Oscar Diaz
• Publication Date: 2020

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 10-19
• Serial:
  • Aviation
  • Volume: 24
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VGTU) Press
  • ISSN: 1648-7788
  • EISSN: 1822-4180
  • Serial URL: https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/Aviation/about
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic; Air transportation; Air transportation policy; Deregulation; Dynamic models; Traffic forecasting
• Geographic Terms: Colombia
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01743082
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 19 2020 2:18PM