PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC STABILITY ANALYSIS OF EARTH SLOPES

A new mathematical model is proposed for determining the reliability of earth slopes during earthquakes. The method provides a probabilistic, pseudo-static, seismic stability analysis. Safety of slopes is measured in terms of probability of failure rather than the customary safety factor, and the numerical values are determined via a Monte Carlo simulation of failure. Significant uncertainties present in conventional methods of analysis have been identified and probabilistic tools introduced for their description and amelioration. This report reviews the objectives and achievements of the project. Models used to account for the variability of soil strength are described and illustrated. Results of a parametric study on the relative strength and seismic parameters are presented in graphs and tables. Finally, an evaluation of the developed model is included with a discussion of its applicability and limitations.

Corporate Authors:
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 110 Eighth Street
Troy, NY United States 12180

National Science Foundation

Engineeing and Applied Science, 1800 G Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20550
Authors:
- A-Grivas, D
- Howland, J D
Publication Date: 1980-12

Media Info

Pagination: 131 p.

Subject/Index Terms

TRT Terms: Dynamics; Earthquakes; Failure; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Probability; Probability density functions; Probability theory; Properties of materials; Seismicity; Slope stability; Slopes; Soils
Uncontrolled Terms: Probabilistic analysis; Seismic response; Soil dynamics; Soil properties
Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Geotechnology; Highways; Materials; I42: Soil Mechanics;

Filing Info

Accession Number: 00336709
Record Type: Publication
Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
Report/Paper Numbers: CE-80-2, NSF/RA-800385
Contract Numbers: NSF-ENV77-16185
Files: TRIS
Created Date: Jun 12 1981 12:00AM