The US faces two critical tasks in energy: (1) to lead the world in the transition from an economy highly dependent on conventional oil resources to an economy based on careful use of energy sources with nearly unlimited potential; and (2) to manage our own oil vulnerability (both economic and strategic) during the time this transition will require - especially the next decade. This study included an initial request for ideas from the public on further steps to reduce our vulnerability, followed by a phase of intensive analysis of these ideas by the staff of the Office of Policy and Evaluation in the Department of Energy. This analytical report to the Secretary of Energy represents the views of the Assistant Secretary for Policy and Evaluation on the next agenda in US energy policy. Although the key individuals in this Department and selected officials in the Administration have been briefed on the study and have had the opportunity to review an earlier draft, the conclusions are at this time strictly products of this office. Under current policies and programs the best estimate of this study is that oil imports, 7.9 million barrels per day (MMBD) in 1979, will rise to about 8.3 MMBD by 1985 but then decline to perhaps 6.7 MMBD in 1990. This best estimate is predicted on the following: (1) the economy will become more energy efficient; (2) by 1990, energy use in all sectors will decrease substantially; (3) use of coal will increase by 60% and nuclear power output will nearly triple by 1990; and (4) total US petroleum production will decrease by 20% by 1990. (ERA citation 06:002454)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Department of Energy

    Office of Policy and Evaluation
    Washington, DC  United States  20585
  • Publication Date: 1980-11-10

Media Info

  • Pagination: 439 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00336276
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 21 1981 12:00AM